Nepal 2014 Article Iv Consultation Staff Report Press Release And Statement By The Executive Director For Nepal

Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498316360
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KEY ISSUES Context: Successful elections for a new Constituent Assembly and formation of a new government have stabilized the political situation. Macroeconomic situation and outlook: Nepal’s macroeconomic situation remains broadly favorable. Growth is projected to recover in 2013/14 owing to good monsoons, robust growth in services, and increased public spending. Inflation is moderating, in line with developments in India. High remittance inflows are supporting a strong external position, as well as high reserve money growth. Risks to the outlook are slightly tilted to the downside, involving slower-than-expected growth in countries hosting Nepali workers and domestic financial sector risks. Medium term prospects: While remittances are expected to continue to support the external position, the outlook for growth depends on improving the environment for private investment. This requires a decisive boost in public capital spending, and structural reforms in key areas. Financial sector: Despite progress, significant vulnerabilities remain. The recent assessment under the FSAP, Nepal’s first, raised concerns about asset quality and interconnectedness, as well as financial sector infrastructure—including the legal framework—and supervision and crisis preparedness. At the same time, a largely unsupervised cooperatives sector is growing rapidly. Key policy recommendations: Monetary policy should aim at controlling the volatility and level of excess reserves in the financial system, implying a modest tightening of monetary conditions. The exchange rate peg to the Indian rupee provides a useful nominal anchor for the economy, and the real exchange rate is broadly in line with fundamentals. Capital spending needs to be boosted to provide key infrastructure, and reforms implemented to support private investment, which will help generate sustained economic growth and employment opportunities. In the financial sector, further reforms to bolster regulation and supervision, and improve financial infrastructure are needed to reduce risk and increase access to finance.

Nepal

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"Successful elections for a new Constituent Assembly and formation of a new government have stabilized the political situation. Macroeconomic situation and outlook: Nepal's macroeconomic situation remains broadly favorable. Growth is projected to recover in 2013/14 owing to good monsoons, robust growth in services, and increased public spending. Inflation is moderating, in line with developments in India. High remittance inflows are supporting a strong external position, as well as high reserve money growth. Risks to the outlook are slightly tilted to the downside, involving slower-than-expected growth in countries hosting Nepali workers and domestic financial sector risks. Medium term prospects: While remittances are expected to continue to support the external position, the outlook for growth depends on improving the environment for private investment. This requires a decisive boost in public capital spending, and structural reforms in key areas. Financial sector: Despite progress, significant vulnerabilities remain. The recent assessment under the FSAP, Nepal's first, raised concerns about asset quality and interconnectedness, as well as financial sector infrastructure - including the legal framework - and supervision and crisis preparedness. At the same time, a largely unsupervised cooperatives sector is growing rapidly. Key policy recommendations: Monetary policy should aim at controlling the volatility and level of excess reserves in the financial system, implying a modest tightening of monetary conditions. The exchange rate peg to the Indian rupee provides a useful nominal anchor for the economy, and the real exchange rate is broadly in line with fundamentals. Capital spending needs to be boosted to provide key infrastructure, and reforms implemented to support private investment, which will help generate sustained economic growth and employment opportunities. In the financial sector, further reforms to bolster regulation and supervision, and improve financial infrastructure are needed to reduce risk and increase access to finance"--Abstract.

Nepal

Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455207802
Size: 26.53 MB
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After years of macroeconomic stability, the global crisis is having a substantial, albeit somewhat delayed, impact on Nepal’s economy and exposing its structural weaknesses. Although the Nepalese rupee appears modestly overvalued, maintaining the peg should remain a key near-term policy objective. Risks in the financial sector are coming to a head and need to be addressed urgently. The Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB)’s recent directives are welcome, but enforcement is crucial to their effectiveness. Bank licensing policy needs to be tightened, banking sector consolidation incentivized, and state-controlled bank reform tackled.

How Large Are Global Energy Subsidies

Author: David Coady
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513560506
Size: 40.85 MB
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This paper provides a comprehensive, updated picture of energy subsidies at the global and regional levels. It focuses on the broad notion of post-tax energy subsidies, which arise when consumer prices are below supply costs plus a tax to reflect environmental damage and an additional tax applied to all consumption goods to raise government revenues. Post-tax energy subsidies are dramatically higher than previously estimated, and are projected to remain high. These subsidies primarily reflect under-pricing from a domestic (rather than global) perspective, so even unilateral price reform is in countries’ own interests. The potential fiscal, environmental and welfare impacts of energy subsidy reform are substantial.

Breaking The Oil Spell

Author: Reda Cherif
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484317785
Size: 18.47 MB
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The “Gulf Falcons”—the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council—have high living standards as a result of large income flows from oil. The decline of oil prices between summer 2014 and fall 2015 underscores the urgency for the Gulf Falcons to diversify away from their current heavy reliance on oil exports. This book discusses attempts at diversification in the Middle East and North Africa and the complex choices policymakers face. It brings together the views of academics and policymakers to offer practical advice for future efforts to increase productivity growth.

Inflation Forecast Targeting For India

Author: Mr.Jaromir Benes
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 147558430X
Size: 79.30 MB
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India formally adopted flexible inflation targeting (FIT) in June 2016 to place price stability, defined in terms of a target CPI inflation, as the primary objective of monetary policy. In this context, the paper draws on Indian macroeconomic developments since 2000 and the experience of other countries that adopted FIT to bring out insights on how credible policy with an emphasis on a strong nominal anchor can reduce the impact of supply shocks and improve macroeconomic stability. For illustrating the key issues given the unique structural characteristics of India and the policy options under an FIT framework, the paper describes an analytical framework using the core quarterly projection model (QPM). Simulations of the QPM are carried out to illustrate the monetary policy responses under different types of uncertainty and to bring out the importance of gaining credibility for improving monetary policy efficacy.

Quarterly Projection Model For India

Author: Mr.Jaromir Benes
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 147558427X
Size: 20.57 MB
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This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating forecasts and risk assessment as well as conducting policy analysis. QPM incorporates several India-specific features like the importance of the agricultural sector and food prices in the inflation process; features of monetary policy transmission and implications of an endogenous credibility process for monetary policy formulation. The paper also describes key properties and historical decompositions of some important macroeconomic variables.

Indian Financial Sector

Author: Rakesh Mohan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475570228
Size: 52.76 MB
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This paper traces the story of Indian financial sector over the period 1950–2015. In identifying the trends and turns of Indian financial sector, the paper adopts a three period classification viz., (a) the 1950s and 1960s, which exhibited some elements of instability associated with laissez faire but underdeveloped banking; (b) the 1970s and 1980s that experienced the process of financial development across the country under government auspices, accompanied by a degree of financial repression; and (c) the period since the 1990s till date, that has been characterized by gradual and calibrated financial deepening and liberalization. Focusing more the third period, the paper argues that as a consequence of successive reforms over the past 25 years, there has been significant progress in making interest and exchange rates largely market determined, though the exchange rate regime remains one of managed float, and some interest rates remain administered. Considerable competition has been introduced in the banking sector through new private sector banks, but public sector banks continue have a dominant share in the market. Contractual savings systems have been improved, but pension funds in India are still in their infancy. Similarly, despite the introduction of new private sector insurance companies coverage of insurance can expand much further, which would also provide greater depth to the financial markets. The extent of development along all the segments of the financial market has not been uniform. While the equity market is quite developed, activities in the private debt market are predominantly confined to private placement form and continue to be limited to the bluechip companies. Going forward, the future areas for development in the Indian financial sector would include further reduction of public ownership in banks and insurance companies, expansion of the contractual savings system through more rapid expansion of the insurance and pension systems, greater spread of mutual funds, and development of institutional investors. It is only then that both the equity and debt markets will display greater breadth as well as depth, along with greater domestic liquidity. At the same time, while reforming the financial sector, the Indian authorities had to constantly keep the issues of equity and efficiency in mind.

World Report On Disability

Author: World Health Organization
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789241564182
Size: 41.77 MB
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The World Report on Disability suggests more than a billion people totally experience disability. They generally have poorer health, lower education and fewer economic opportunities and higher rates of poverty than people without disabilities. This report provides the best available evidence about what works to overcome barriers to better care and services.