France 2014 Article Iv Consultation Staff Report Press Release And Statement By The Executive Director For France

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498324169
Size: 36.51 MB
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This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of France fared better than most other large euro areas economies through the crisis, reflecting the resilience of private consumption, lack of financial fragmentation, and lower levels of household and corporate debt. Banks’ financial position has also been strengthened. But after two years of near stagnation, unemployment remains high. A loss of competitiveness has also weighed on growth. The outlook is for a gradual recovery, with GDP growth projected at 0.7 percent in 2014 and 1.4 percent in 2015, based on stronger external and domestic private demand, reflecting gains in real disposable income and improved profit margins.

Union Of The Comoros 2014 Article Iv Consultation Staff Report Press Release And Statement By The Executive Director For The Union Of The Comoros

Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498309496
Size: 11.71 MB
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KEY ISSUES • The Comorian economy continues to grow although at a slightly slower pace. Economic growth in 2014 is projected at 3.3 percent, adversely affected by electricity disruptions and slower-than-expected implementation of the public investment program. Inflation has remained subdued. Staffs’ baseline assumption is that real GDP growth will average around 4 percent per annum over the medium term, provided reforms are implemented. • Implementation of the 2014 budget was challenging, particularly after mid-year. While revenues were broadly on target, resources were inadequate to meet the higher- than-budgeted wage bill resulting from an increase in teacher salaries in March and previously un-budgeted expenditures, including on elections. Domestically-financed investment spending was severely constrained and temporary arrears were incurred on salaries and external debt. • The key short-term challenge is to find a better balance between available resources and expenditures so that arrears can be avoided. Spending plans need to be based on realistic expectations of the resources likely to be available. The 2015 budget is premised on this principle but the scope for domestically-financed investment is inadequate as obligatory spending on wages and salaries and debt service absorbs most of domestic revenue. • For the medium-term the key challenges are to create fiscal space for infrastructure investment and social spending, accelerate inclusive growth and employment generation, and reduce poverty. The authorities need to focus their efforts on strengthening revenue administration and public financial management to expand fiscal space and improve transparency. Weaknesses in the business environment, including inadequate infrastructure, especially in the energy sector, and difficulties in contract enforcement represent important challenges.

Luxembourg 2014 Article Iv Consultation Staff Report Press Release And Statement By The Executive Director For Luxembourg

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484378598
Size: 27.86 MB
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This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that with a strong policy framework, Luxembourg has weathered the crisis well and the economy is rebounding. The fiscal position remains sound, and the large financial sector has been resilient. After a shallow recession in 2012, growth reached 2.1 percent in 2013. The improving economic and financial environment in Europe drove the recovery in services exports. The outlook is for growth to firm up but without returning to its pre-crisis trend. Output is forecast to grow broadly in line with potential (2 to 2½ percent) during 2014–2019.

Mauritius 2014 Article Iv Consultation Staff Report Press Release And Statement By The Executive Director For Mauritius

Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484368134
Size: 27.13 MB
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This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that with subdued international prices, inflationary pressures in Mauritius declined in 2013, despite the public sector wage increases. The unemployment rate was unchanged compared with 2012 at 8 percent. Credit to private sector growth remained robust. On the external front, the current account deficit widened to almost 10 percent of GDP in 2013. The reserve cover of imports of goods and services stayed constant at 4½ months with the Bank of Mauritius accumulating additional net international reserves. The structural primary deficit was broadly unchanged relative to 2011.

Spain 2014 Article Iv Consultation Staff Report Staff Supplement Press Release And Statement By The Executive Director For Spain

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498308155
Size: 12.61 MB
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This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic growth in Spain has resumed, and unemployment is falling. Exporters are gaining market share, and the current account is in surplus for the first time in decades. Financial conditions have improved sharply, with sovereign yields at record lows. Business investment is rebounding strongly and private consumption has also started to recover owing to improved employment prospects and rising confidence. Executive Directors have welcomed the improving Spanish economy. They have stressed that labor market reform should be accompanied by product and service market liberalization to maximize the gains to growth and jobs.

Italy 2014 Article Iv Consultation Staff Report Press Release And Statement By The Executive Director For Italy

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498302637
Size: 49.37 MB
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KEY ISSUES Unleashing Italy’s Potential The economy is struggling to emerge from a prolonged balance-sheet recession… Tight credit conditions, weak corporate balance sheets, and deeply-rooted structural rigidities continue to weigh on domestic demand. The high level of public debt and membership in a currency union highlight the importance of tackling these structural weaknesses. …and the risks are tilted to the downside. External risks arise from geopolitical tensions, while Italy’s high public debt, large public financing needs, and elevated NPLs leave the economy vulnerable to financial contagion and/or low growth and inflation. Without meaningful reforms, potential growth is projected to remain low. Deep structural changes are urgently needed to secure a recovery and unleash Italy’s growth potential. Moving to a single labor contract with gradually increasing protection would reduce duality. Judicial efficiency could be improved by promoting mediation and enhancing monitoring of court performance. Greater efforts to combat corruption would strengthen the business environment. Implementing reforms simultaneously could be self- reinforcing and generate significant growth synergies. A greater push to clean up banks’ bad loans is needed to support lending in the recovery. More provisioning and write-offs; a private distressed debt market; and enhanced insolvency regime would accelerate the reduction of NPLs. Improved corporate governance and deeper capital markets would support growth and financial stability. A broad strategy to revive the SME sector would complement efforts to strengthen bank balance sheets. This strategy should promote restructuring support for viable, but distressed firms and a quick exit for those that are non-viable. A new fiduciary loan contract and greater sharing of credit information could support alternative financing for new endeavors. Fiscal policy needs to strike a delicate balance between setting the debt ratio on a downward path while helping the economy recover. To support growth, the priority should be to lower marginal tax rates through spending savings and lower tax expenditures. But given the low growth and high interest rate environment, stronger fiscal balances are needed to bring down debt faster. Conditional on the recovery taking hold, a modest structural surplus next year would be appropriate. Policies at the European level could also support growth by easing further monetary conditions should inflation remain too low, and reducing financial fragmentation.

How Large Are Global Energy Subsidies

Author: David Coady
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513560506
Size: 73.94 MB
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This paper provides a comprehensive, updated picture of energy subsidies at the global and regional levels. It focuses on the broad notion of post-tax energy subsidies, which arise when consumer prices are below supply costs plus a tax to reflect environmental damage and an additional tax applied to all consumption goods to raise government revenues. Post-tax energy subsidies are dramatically higher than previously estimated, and are projected to remain high. These subsidies primarily reflect under-pricing from a domestic (rather than global) perspective, so even unilateral price reform is in countries’ own interests. The potential fiscal, environmental and welfare impacts of energy subsidy reform are substantial.

Breaking The Oil Spell

Author: Reda Cherif
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484317785
Size: 37.47 MB
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The “Gulf Falcons”—the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council—have high living standards as a result of large income flows from oil. The decline of oil prices between summer 2014 and fall 2015 underscores the urgency for the Gulf Falcons to diversify away from their current heavy reliance on oil exports. This book discusses attempts at diversification in the Middle East and North Africa and the complex choices policymakers face. It brings together the views of academics and policymakers to offer practical advice for future efforts to increase productivity growth.

Investment In The Euro Area Why Has It Been Weak

Author: Ms. Bergljot Barkbu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484358546
Size: 47.42 MB
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Investment across the euro area remains below its pre-crisis level. Its performance has been weaker than in most previous recessions and financial crises. This paper shows that a part of this weakness can be explained by output dynamics, particularly before the European sovereign debt crisis. The rest is explained by a high cost of capital, financial constraints, corporate leverage, and uncertainty. There is a considerable cross country heterogeneity in terms of both investment dymanics and its determinants. Based on the findings of this paper, investment is expected to pick up as the recovery strengthens and uncertainty declines, but persistent financial fragmentation and high corporate leverage in some countries will likely continue to weigh on investment.

Exchange Rate Assessments

Author: Mr. Jaewoo Lee
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451932316
Size: 27.33 MB
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The rapid increase in international trade and financial integration over the past decade and the growing importance of emerging markets in world trade and GDP have inspired the IMF to place stronger emphasis on multilateral surveillance, macro-financial linkages, and the implications of globalization. The IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER)--formed in the mid-1990s to provide exchange rate assessments for a number of advanced economies from a multilateral perspective--has therefore broadened its mandate to cover both key advanced economies and major emerging market economies. This Occasional Paper summarizes the methodologies that underpin the expanded analysis.