Albania First Review Under The Extended Arrangement And Request For Modification Of Performance Criteria Staff Report And Press Release

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498337309
Size: 77.50 MB
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KEY ISSUES Background: On February 28, the Executive Board approved a three-year Extended Arrangement with access of SDR 295.42 million (492.4 percent of quota). A purchase of SDR 23.55 million (about EUR 26.4 million) was made in April 2014, and another will be made in the same amount upon completion of the first review. Recent Economic Developments: Growth in 2013 was the lowest in more than 15 years. The economy is showing tentative signs of recovery, but remains below potential. Successive monetary easing has not prevented credit contraction. The banking system remains stable, but asset quality is a concern. Program Performance and Risks: The program is on track. All end-March quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks were met, except for the structural benchmark on contracting an external auditor to conduct risk-based audits of arrears payments, which was not met but the government expects to complete in the coming weeks. An indicative target on accumulation of new arrears was not met although by a small margin and inflation has been slightly below the inner band prescribed under the inflation consultation clause. Program risks emanate from the complexity of reforms, particularly in electricity sector, and the need for sustained political commitment over the medium term. Policy Recommendations: No new fiscal measures will be needed in 2014, but the authorities should tackle emerging fiscal risks. Arrears clearance can be accelerated once external audits have progressed sufficiently. Addressing high NPLs will require continued efforts to clean bank and private sector balance sheets. Preparatory work related to the 2015 budget and structural reforms should start soon.

Albania Fourth Review Under The Extended Arrangement And Request For Modification And Waiver Of Applicability Of Performance Criteria Staff Report And Press Release

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513597191
Size: 67.20 MB
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KEY ISSUES Background: In February 2014, the Executive Board approved a three-year Extended Arrangement with access equivalent to SDR 295.42 million (492.4 percent of quota). So far, three purchases totaling the equivalent of SDR 94.2 million have been made, and another one equivalent to SDR 28.88 million will be made available upon completion of the fourth review. Recent Economic Developments: Economic recovery is underway, but growth remains below potential. The low oil price is expected to have a muted effect on growth and on the balance of payments, as pass-through is weak and Albania is only a small net oil exporter. High non-performing loans (NPLs) make banks risk-averse, and credit growth remains sluggish despite monetary easing. Program Performance and Risks: The program is on track. All end-December 2014 and continuous performance criteria (PCs) and most indicative targets (ITs) were met, with comfortable margins. An exception was the IT on new domestic arrears, which was missed by a small margin; the authorities will repay the arrears by end-April and have taken other corrective measures to prevent arrears from recurring. Inflation has been slightly below the inner band prescribed under the inflation consultation clause. All but one structural benchmarks (SBs) were implemented, though two more were delayed. Delays in the appointment of a new central bank governor as well as in procurement postponed the hiring of an external expert to assist the Bank of Albania’s Audit Committee from February to May 2015. Program risks emanate from external disinflationary pressures, the complexity of electricity sector reforms, and the need for sustained political commitment to fiscal adjustment. The authorities request, and staff supports, a modification of PCs for August and December 2015, and a waiver of applicability for all end-April 2015 PCs. Policy Recommendations: The authorities should shield the 2015 budget deficit target from the risk of falling oil royalties and external disinflationary pressures. Reducing public debt over the medium term will require political commitment to sustain the significant fiscal consolidation which began in 2014. The central bank’s cautious monetary easing is broadly appropriate. Addressing the high stock of NPLs is crucial for reviving credit. The micro-prudential focus on the fastest-growing segments of the banking system is appropriate. Regulatory gaps in nonbank supervision should be filled promptly. While the early results from the authorities’ ambitious power sector reform have been impressive, sustaining the effort is critical.

Albania Second And Third Reviews Under The Extended Arrangement And Request For Waiver For The Nonobservance Of Performance Criterion Waiver Of Applicability Of Performance Criteria And Rephasing Of Future Disbursements Staff Report Press Release And Statement By The Executive Director For Albania

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616357673
Size: 24.34 MB
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This paper discusses Albania’s Second and Third Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Waiver for the Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, Waiver of Applicability of PCs, and Rephasing of Future Disbursements. The program is on track. All end-June, end-September, and available end-December quantitative PCs were met. However, the continuous PC on the accumulation of external arrears was not observed because of technical delay with one interest payment. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for the completion of the second and third reviews under the Extended Arrangement, waiver of applicability of PCs, and rephasing of future disbursements.

Albania

Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1452704120
Size: 77.77 MB
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This paper examines Albania’s 2002 Article IV Consultation, First Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF), and Requests for Modification and Waiver of Performance Criterion. Economic growth appears to have fallen below a 7 percent estimated historical average, to 4.7 percent in 2002. High foreign investments and private remittances in 2001 have maintained robust import demand, reflected in a widening trade deficit in 2001 and the first half of 2002. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for completing the first program review and the request for a waiver.

Imf Survey No 15 2003

Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455221481
Size: 30.83 MB
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The IMF recently concluded its annual “health checkup” (Article IV consultation with the U.S. authorities) of the U.S. economy amid continuing questions about the strength of the economic recovery. While recent data have been reassuring, IMF staff cautioned that lingering effects from the collapse of the equity price bubble could still dampen activity, so that a durable economic upswing was not a foregone conclusion. In view of the large unfunded liabilities in the public pension and health systems and the recent deterioration in the federal fiscal position, the staff also raised concerns about fiscal sustainability and pointed to the risk that fiscal deficits could crowd out private investment and exacerbate the growing U.S. current account deficit. These issues are discussed in the IMF Staff Report and Selected Issues papers now available on the IMF’s website (http://www.imf.org/external/country/usa/index.htm).

Statistical Capacity Building

Author: Mr. Thomas K. Morrison
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 9781451980059
Size: 50.41 MB
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IMF technical assistance provided by the Statistics Department--toward assisting IMF member countries in developing the ability to provide reliable and comparable economic and financial data on a timely basis to policymakers and markets--has increased more than fourfold over the past decade. This assistance has proven critical in countries' building their statistical capacity so as to come into line with international data standards in an increasingly globalized and electronically interconnected world. Statistical Capacity Building: Case Studies and Lessons Learned presents four case studies drawn from experience in three countries in transition to the market, two of which were also in postconflict situations, in the 1990s and early 2000s: Cambodia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Ukraine. Issues of setting, institutional and statistical arrangements, strategies, and implementation are examined, and lessons learned.

Taming Indian Inflation

Author: Mr. Paul Cashin
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475558376
Size: 16.70 MB
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High and persistent inflation in India has presented serious macroeconomic challenges, such as widening the current account deficit, exposing India to global financial market turbulence, and slowing growth. A number of factors have caused high inflation, including food inflation feeding quickly into wages and core inflation, entrenched inflation expectations, sector-specific supply constraints (particularly in agriculture, energy, and transportation), pass-through from a weaker rupee, and ongoing energy price increases. This book analyzes various facets of Indian inflation and their implications for the conduct of monetary policy in India. In particular, given the role of food inflation in driving inflation dynamics in India, several chapters are devoted exclusively to analyzing and managing food inflation. Building on the analysis of inflation dynamics, the book discusses the role of monetary policy in taming inflation, particularly given the costs of high and persistent inflation in India.